Worst case scenario in Ukraine and Russia

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To analyze. Russia has been playing its terrible role every day since the beginning of the unjust war against Ukraine. Every day is bigger with events that were unthinkable until recently. The Western response was united and dazzling: the immediate provocation of massive sanctions, the hunting of oligarchy assets, the supply of arms to the Ukrainians, taking into account the expatriate and humanitarian drama that was just beginning. But this response, commendably, did not stop the attacks on Russian missiles and civilians. This by no means makes the dark design of the Kremlin and its inverted urgency possible. Rather. The long-accepted acceptance of the Russian regime – at its own risk and peril – guarantees a level of strength only by the exercise of one-power and trust.

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We know what the West refuses to consider: a direct military confrontation with Russia. So no “No flying zone” NATO imposed against the air superiority of the occupier. But this time, there was no way out of the crisis. Risk predictions are dangerous. But in all cases, it is necessary to consider the possible worst. Even among Russian experts, very few have made predictions A military operation across Ukraine. The lesson of this error, shared by the author of these lines, is obvious: it must not be repeated. The worst situation – except for the nuclear expansion between Russia and NATO – was: Ukraine became Syria and Russia became North Korea.

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There is always a limit to comparisons between countries. Let’s start with Ukraine. In Syria, racial and religious dimensions, the role of the Islamic State as a terrorist organization are special features of this conflict. But the similarities are just as important now. Vladimir Putin completely underestimated the ability of the Ukrainians to mobilize and resist patriotism. Logically, he even denies the full existence of such people, who are considered a bad provincial relative, to be corrected. The plan to overthrow power in Kiev is failing against reality. The Kremlin sowed hatred in the hearts of the Ukrainians against Moscow. Even if President Volodymyr Zelensky is killed or deported, any toy installed in Kiev will be treated as such. And Russia has no way of keeping the whole country under military control for long.

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